Morley Winograd and Michael Hais’s (2008) Millennial Makeover offers an interesting and prescient look at macro level political shifts. They argue that major political shifts happen at the intersection of a triggering event and new communication technologies. They site several examples starting at the Civil War through 9/11. They identify these shifts with generational transitions as well. In fact, the whole first third of the book is about generational theory. (Who knew this existed? But it’s really cool).
The authors focus on a generational theory that places whole generations into four broad archetypes:
1. Idealist (Boomers)
2. Reactive (Gen Xers)
3. Civic (Millennials)
4. Adaptive (The Silent Generation)
Their argument is that as the Millennials come into their own, a civic movement will sweep through the country. People will be less focused on their selves and more on improving institutions. Where the Boomers looked to break the establishment and create a new one, the Millennials will look to perfect what has already been created. And indeed, if the last election was any indication, that is happening. Although Obama was elected by all generations, as Winograd and Hais point out, his message was fundamentally Millennial. They highlight Obama’s reference to the Joshua Generation at a Selma, Alabama church during an annual remembrance of the fateful Pettis bridge crossing and beating of black marchers by Alabama State Troopers. (A service which I happened to attend).
Obama’s point echoes Winograd and Hais’s generational theories—namely, the Moses Generation (Boomers) gave us the Civil Right Movement and the Joshua Generation (Millennials) will realize MLK’s dream.
So how does this all fit in with digital strategy?
Winograd and Hais: “[Technology has] oscillated in harmony with [America’s] generational cycles, so that as the nation finds the need to confront new challenges, the ability to debate those questions in wider and wider circle with more and more information has also been possible.”
Today we see just this. Social networking and social media have exploded communication and information sharing like never before. Just as the civic generation takes hold of things, communication technologies now allow people to collect just about any information they need. Large open and democratic groups have emerged as far more influential and powerful than the cabal of protected, moneyed interests. Open source software is a perfect example of this—its free and its usually better (if not completely sufficient) than its proprietary counterparts. All of this is based on the idea that together we can accomplish more than alone.
Unfortunately, Winograd and Hais don’t quite address timeframe. In order to create a valid working generational theory, you need to have a lot of time and data to look at. Their timeline is limited as it only goes back about 100 years with any real accuracy. Indeed, the civic generations (the Greatest Gen and the Millennials) certainly have a lot in common. However, who’s to say that the next generation will be modeled off the Silent Generation. Perhaps in the long view, “generations” will model a much longer time frame such as the Chinese Zodiac, or, more likely, a much shorter one. If it’s the latter, then digital strategy will have to adapt to something quite new just as people begin to master what is becoming the status quo.